Coordinated by ATEC – Advanced Training and Education Center, CMCC Foundation
INTRODUCTION
The rapidly evolving field of climate science has developed increasingly robust tools to assess the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to extreme events and long-term impacts. In particular, climate attribution science has advanced methods to link sources of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming trends, extreme events, and long-term physical changes in the Earth system.
While attribution science can identify changes in the likelihood and magnitude of events, as well as the proportional contribution of different factors to climate change, these findings do not readily translate into precise causal claims regarding specific harms. Key challenges arise from nonlinear interactions among climate extremes, uneven vulnerability shaped by socio-political and economic conditions, and cascading uncertainties.
In this context, attribution science cannot always establish deterministic causal links for individual harms in the way traditional forensic evidence might require. Instead, scientific analyses typically rely on probabilistic reasoning, accounting for natural variability and multiple interacting factors within the climate system. By contrast, legal reasoning has traditionally required a high degree of certainty to establish causation and allocate responsibility under established doctrines. These differences reflect fundamentally distinct epistemological approaches between science and law.
Courts are increasingly required to address interdisciplinary questions related to attribution science, climate modelling, multi-causal and systemic forms of responsibility, and the quantification of contributions to harm. The growing interaction between scientific and legal domains has exposed a governance gap.
A structured doctrinal framework capable of translating probabilistic, multi-causal and systemic climate contributions into legally actionable responsibility remains underdeveloped. Against this background, the workshop brings together scientific and legal perspectives to explore what types of climate evidence can withstand judicial scrutiny and how attribution findings may be translated into legal thresholds of causation. It also seeks to develop a realistic understanding of how climate science can inform judicial reasoning without compromising scientific integrity or legal safeguards.
As a leading climate modelling institution and IPCC Focal Point for Italy, CMCC provides a unique setting for an interdisciplinary dialogue on how advances in climate science can inform legal reasoning on causation and responsibility.
This closed workshop will bring together a small group of climate scientists, legal scholars, practitioners, and judges to examine how developments in climate attribution science interact with legal doctrines of causation and responsibility in corporate climate litigation. Organised around clearly defined research questions, the workshop will foster open exchange between scientific and legal perspectives. Each day will combine scientific and legal expertise, drawing on selected case studies to explore issues of causation, attribution and responsibility in practice. The workshop will prioritise interactive exchange, combining expert interventions (20-30 minutes) with moderated discussion among all participants.
AGENDA
Day 1 - 27 April 2026
Deconstructing Climate Causation: Understanding Attribution Across Science and Law
Objective: to clarify how attribution science is developed, applied and interpreted in both climate science and legal reasoning, through a comparative discussion of scientific attribution methodologies, legal concepts of causation and proof, and differing approaches to uncertainty and probabilistic reasoning.
12:45–13:45 – Lunch
14:00-14:30 – Opening Session
- Giulia Galluccio, Director of the Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC), CMCC Foundation and Vice Chair of Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate).
- Petra Manderscheid, Executive Director of the Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate)
- Ivano Alogna, Senior Researcher in Climate Law at the Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC, CMCC Foundation), and Senior Research Fellow in Environmental and Climate Change Law and Director of the Global Toolbox on Corporate Climate Litigation at the British Institute of International and Comparative Law (BIICL)
14:30–16:30 – Session 1: What Does Climate Attribution Actually Prove?
Chairs: Giulia Galluccio and Ivano Alogna
Speakers
- Antonio Navarra, President, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation)
Topic: Defining Causal Contribution in Complex Climate Systems
- Michael Burger, Executive Director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School, online
Topic: Translating Climate Science into Judicial Reasoning
Open discussion
16:30–17:00 - Coffee Break
17:00–18:30 - Session 2: From Scientific Attribution to Legal Causation: Reframing Evidence and Proof
Chair: Ivano Alogna
- Delta Merner, Lead Scientist, Science Hub for Climate Litigation, Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), online
Topic: From Probabilistic Attribution to Litigation-Relevant Evidence
- Kate McKenzie, Founding Director and CEO of the Climate Change Legal Initiative (C2LI)
Topic: Strategic Uses of Attribution Evidence in Climate Litigation
Open discussion
19:30 - Aperitif and Dinner
Day 2 – 28 April 2026
Reconstructing the Climate Causal Chain: From Emissions to Harm and Corporate responsibility
Objective: to examine how scientific modelling and legal reasoning interact in constructing multi-step causal chains linking emissions to climate impacts, damage pathways and corporate responsibility. The discussion will focus in particular on cumulative causation and systemic responsibility within complex climate systems.
09:30 – 11:00 - Session 3: Linking Emissions to Climate Impacts: Scientific and Judicial Perspectives
Chair: Giulia Galluccio
Speakers
- Brian J. Preston, Chief Judge of the Land and Environment Court, New South Wales, online
Topic: Judicial Approaches to Complex Climate Causation
- Giulio Boccaletti, Scientific Director, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, CMCC Foundation
Discussant - Linking Emissions to Impacts: Limits and Possibilities of Climate Modelling
Open discussion
11:00–11:30 - Coffee Break
11:30–13:00 - Session 4: Translating Attribution into Legal Claims: Evidence in Practice
Chair: Ivano Alogna
Speakers
- Noah Walker-Crawford (LSE) Research Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science
Topic: Attribution Science in Practice: Lessons from Luciano Lliuya v. RWE
- Johannes Wendland, Legal Advisor for Business and Human Rights at HEKS – Swiss Church Aid in Zurich, online
Topic: Contesting Climate Causation: How Defendants Challenge Attribution-Based Claims in the Asmania et al. vs Holcim case
Open discussion
13:00–14:30 - Lunch
14:30–16:30 - Session 5: Attributing Corporate Responsibility in Complex Climate Systems
Chair: Ivano Alogna
Speakers
- Annalisa Savaresi, Professor of International Environmental Law at the University of Stirling and at the University of Eastern Finland
Topic: Rethinking Corporate Responsibility through Human Rights and Systemic Causation
- Richard Heede, Co-founder and Director, Climate Accountability Institute, online
Topic: Quantifying Corporate Emissions: From Carbon Majors to Legal Responsibility
- Yann Robiou du Pont, Research Fellow at Bergen University
Topic: From Emissions to Responsibility: Modelling Causal Contribution in Complex Systems
Open discussion
16:30–17:00 - Coffee Break
17:00–19:00 - Villa Vigoni Guided Tour
19:30 - Dinner
Day 3 – 29 April 2026
Operationalising Climate Causation: Evidentiary Integration and Judicial Decision-Making
Objective: to examine how advanced climate science – particularly probabilistic attribution and model-based evidence – can be interpreted and assessed within existing legal standards of proof without distorting either scientific integrity or legal safeguards. The discussion will address the compatibility of attribution science with doctrine of causation, standards of proof, and evidentiary mechanisms.
09:30–11:00 - Session 6: Standards of Proof and Climate Causation: When is Evidence Enough?
Chair: Ivano Alogna
Speakers
- Jacqueline Peel, Professor of Law and Director of Melbourne Climate Futures, Melbourne University, online
Topic: Evolving Standards of Proof in Climate Litigation: Integrating Scientific Evidence
- Elbert de Jong, Professor of Private Law, Utrecht Centre for Accountability and Liability Law and Molengraaff Institute for Private Law, Utrecht University
Topic: Addressing Probabilistic Harm: Limits and Flexibility of Private Law in Climate Cases
Open discussion
11:00–11:30 - Coffee Break
11:30–13:00 - Session 7: Climate Causation: Legal, Scientific and Policy Implications
Chair: Giulia Galluccio
Speakers
- Marc Willers KC, Barrister, Garden Court Chambers, United Kingdom
- Frank McGovern, Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland, Vice Chair of Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate), Expert negotiator in climate
- Giulio Boccaletti, Scientific Director, CMCC Foundation
Open discussion
13:00–14:30 - Lunch
14:30-16:00 - Closing Session: Synthesising Key Insights and Future Research Directions
Open discussion
PARTICIPANTS
Experts in person:
- Antonio Navarra, President, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation)
- Giulio Boccaletti, Scientific Director, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC Foundation)
- Giulia Galluccio, Director, Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC), CMCC Foundation, and Vice Chair of Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate).
- Yann Robiou du Pont, Research Fellow, University of Bergen; Marie Skłodowska-Curie Fellow and Fulbright Schuman Scholar
- Noah Walker-Crawford, Research Fellow, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics (LSE)
- Annalisa Savaresi, Professor of International Environmental Law, University of Stirling and University of Eastern Finland
- Elbert de Jong, Professor of Private Law, Utrecht Centre for Accountability and Liability Law (UCALL) and Molengraaff Institute for Private Law, Utrecht University
- Kate McKenzie, Founding Director and CEO, Climate Change Legal Initiative (C2LI)
- Marc Willers KC, Barrister, Garden Court Chambers, United Kingdom
- Frank McGovern, Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland, Vice Chair of Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate), Expert negotiator in climate policy at National, European and UN levels.
- Petra Manderscheid, Executive Director, Joint Programming Initiative Connecting Climate Knowledge for Europe (JPI Climate)
- Ivano Alogna, Senior Researcher in Climate Law, ATEC (CMCC Foundation), and Senior Research Fellow in Environmental and Climate Change Law, British Institute of International and Comparative Law (BIICL).
Experts online:
- Jacqueline Peel, Professor of Law and Director of Melbourne Climate Futures, University of Melbourne
- Justice Brian J. Preston, Chief Judge, Land and Environment Court of New South Wales
- Michael Burger, Executive Director, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School
- Richard Heede, Co-founder and Director, Climate Accountability Institute
- Delta Merner, Lead Scientist, Science Hub for Climate Litigation, Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS)
- Johannes Wendland, Legal Advisor for Business and Human Rights, HEKS – Swiss Church Aid
Staff:
- Elisa Fiorini Beckhauser, Postdoctoral researcher in Climate Law, Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC), CMCC Foundation
- Nazlicicek Semercioglu, Postdoctoral researcher in Climate Law, Advanced Training and Education Center (ATEC), CMCC Foundation
